Baccarat Probability Calculator

Bet Type

Simulation Parameters

Stake per Round ($)

Rounds per Session

Sessions to Simulate

Track bankroll (ruin calculation)

Bet Analysis: Banker

Win Probability

45.86%

House Edge

1.06%

Payout Ratio

0.95:1

Return to Player

98.94%

The Banker bet has the highest win probability (45.86%) due to the drawing rules favoring the banker hand. However, casinos charge a 5% commission on banker wins to maintain their edge. This results in the lowest house edge of approximately 1.06%.

Bet Comparison

Bet Type	Win Prob.	Payout	House Edge	RTP
Banker	45.86%	0.95:1	1.06%	98.94%
Player	44.62%	1.00:1	1.24%	98.76%
Tie	9.52%	8.00:1	14.36%	85.64%

Recommendation: Banker bet has the lowest house edge (~1.06%), making it the mathematically optimal choice despite the 5% commission.

Session Simulation Results

Theoretical Loss

$5.29

Per 50 rounds at 1.06% edge

Average Profit

$-8.38

Across 1000 sessions

Median Profit

$-11.25

Probability of Profit

42.0%

Probability of Loss

58.0%

Best Session

+$203.00

Worst Session

$-196.50

Educational Note: Baccarat is a game of pure chance with no skill element. The house edge is built into the rules and payouts. While Banker has the lowest edge, the 5% commission ensures the casino maintains its advantage. Short-term results vary significantly due to variance, but long-term expectations converge to the theoretical house edge.

Related Guides

18+ Only. Gambling involves risk. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more →